As at: 29 March 2007

• Title: Energy, Natural Resources and the Environment

• Subtitle: Challenges for Broadening the European Security Debate
• Speaker: Parliamentary State Secretary Michael Müller
• Occasion: European Conference "Integrating Environment, Development and Conflict Prevention"
• Date/Location: 29 March 2007, Berlin

Distinguished Colleagues, Ladies and Gentlemen,

I Introduction

The topic of my speech may sound rather "dry" or "unwieldy", in spite of the rather sensationalist language used, such as "water wars" or "resource wars". However, in the "real world" it has at least three distinct faces - one beautiful, one dreadful, and one cautionary:

• The beautiful face belongs to Wangari Maathai, winner of the 2004 Nobel Peace Price; the Nobel Prize Committee highlighted the role of environmental protection and transboundary environmental cooperation in the promotion of peace.
• The dreadful face will perhaps be described later: the war in Darfur illustrates how violent conflicts can erupt in an increasingly complex world which are beyond our control.
• The "cautionary" face concerns the suspension of oil pipelines from Russia to Europe, which forced industrialised countries to realise that their dependency on energy and raw materials imports makes them very vulnerable.

The need for strong links between the environment, development and conflict prevention is characterised by two dilemmas:

• Scientists often bemoan the "lack of an empirical basis". However, by the time such a basis exists, it is generally too late or too risk-laden for environmental and development initiatives; this invariably leads to criticisms of "failure", as has been the case in Darfur.
• "Successful prevention" does not produce a visible outcome, and is difficult to depict to the general public.

Despite this, I am firmly convinced of the "added value" that can be achieved by combining the objectives of environmental and security policy, for two reasons:

• These issues are increasingly being addressed by Heads of State and Foreign Ministers: the security risks associated with global, regional and local environmental conflicts are taking centre stage in the political arena, which may help to mobilise additional political and - in particular - financial forces.
• Environmental cooperation is presented as the catalyst for trust-building measures and peace processes in crisis regions - for example, via water cooperation and nature conservation.

II Climate change and security

I am grateful to the British Government and Foreign Minister Market Beckett for highlighting the security dimension of climate change, and we have heard more on this topic by John Ashton. I myself made reference to this correlation back in the Eighties. In 1988, Go Harlem Brundtland described climate change as a "slow war".

I am also grateful to the Danish government for highlighting the importance of this topic in relation to foreign policy. The findings of the report on "Climate Change and Foreign Policies" are being presented in a workgroup.

Germany is also contributing to this debate. The Foreign Office is hosting an international event in mid-June: The Government-appointed "German Advisory Council on Global Change" will be presenting its report on "Climate Change as a Security Risk", confirming fears that the horrific scenes in Darfur could repeat themselves in many other regions, particularly in fragile states.

We also expect this Council to comment on the role of conventional security policy, which is often still based on cold war-inspired threat profiles. The funding made available for conventional security policy is several times higher than that earmarked for development cooperation. Another consideration is whether in view of the rising tide of environmental migrants triggered by climate change we should discuss an international law status.

In mid-February, within the context of Germany's Presidency of the EU, we hosted a European Symposium entitled, "Time to adapt! Climate Change and the European Water Dimension". The concept of "adaptation" also includes the early detection of conflicts triggered by climate change.

The EU must continue to consolidate its leading role in international climate policy, and must lend fresh impetus to international negotiations by adopting ambitious targets. The outcome of the European Summit of 8/9 March marks a historical turning point in this respect. We are all familiar with the resolutions adopted by the European Council. For the first time, these have been successfully combined into an integrated climate protection and energy policy, underscoring the leading role played by the EU.

The next step is to persuade the international community to adopt ambitious climate protection and energy targets, particularly in relation to increased energy efficiency, at the G8 Summit in Heiligendamm in early June. Concrete energy efficiency measures should be agreed if we are to forge ahead with the decarbonisation of the economy. The "G 8 – plus 5" meeting of environment ministers held recently in Potsdam heralded a new departure in this respect. At this meeting, it became clear that international environmental negotiations need to be broadened if we are to achieve a genuine breakthrough. Economic and social development, combating poverty, and access to affordable energy and raw materials should all be combined into one package.

III Security risks associated with energy supply

In future, the protection of energy supplies should give greater consideration to potential crisis areas:

• In the longer term, energy reserves of petroleum and natural gas will only be available in regions which are currently considered relatively unstable. 70 % of the world’s petroleum reserves and 65 % of the world’s natural gas reserves are found in the "energy ellipse" of the Middle East and the Caucasian-Caspian region. The possible rise to power of extreme fanatics, e.g. in Saudi Arabia, and the associated impacts on global oil extraction have not yet been analysed in great depth.
• The security of petroleum and natural gas transport routes via tankers and pipelines has already been analysed in considerable depth, and has been cited as one of the causes of the Chechen war. The construction of new pipelines such as the Baku-Tiflis-Ceyhan pipeline may act as a catalyst for peace processes.
• The pressure on remaining energy reserves of petroleum and natural gas will increase sharply over the next few decades. According to projections by the International Energy Agency (OECD), global consumption will increase by 1.6 % per annum up to the year 2030. Two-thirds of this increase in consumption will be attributable to developing countries, primarily as a result of rapid economic growth in China and in India.
• The security policies of many nations, including the United Nations Security Council, are likely to be increasingly characterised by the protection of national energy supplies and related political considerations. This became clear in the positions adopted by China and Russia when the UN Security Council condemned the Sudan for the Darfur conflict.

The importance of a new direction in energy policy, necessitated in part by climate protection considerations, focussing on the more efficient and economical use of fossil fuels coupled with the more widespread use of renewables, should therefore be viewed against the backdrop of crisis prevention. Europe needs to reduce its dependency, refocus its common energy policy, and forge global energy alliances. Greater energy efficiency, more renewable energies, genuine competition and more intensive international cooperation are the correct responses to these challenges. The EU Commission's energy and climate package, unveiled earlier this year, offers a solid basis in this respect.

A peace dividend could be gained from the global expansion of renewable energies. Renewables offer a unique opportunity for many developing countries to develop and export domestic energy sources. Encouraging results were recently obtained from two research projects to investigate the potential of solar thermal power plants in North Africa and the Middle East, whereby surplus electricity could also be sold to Europe. The authors predict that by the year 2050, between 10 and 25 % of Europe's electricity requirements could be met by desert regions.

We need these types of visions, and must focus on implementing what is already feasible. In this connection, I would draw your attention to the "Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation" (TREC) and its "Gaza Solar Power & Water Project", which it is hoped will supply some 2 - 3 million people in the Gaza region with electricity and water; this project is significant in several respects, and its relevance to peace policy is evident, given Israel's likely involvement. It is now a matter of raising the required investment funds of approximately € 5 billion, which leads me to another important key issue: the role of private industry, which should perhaps be a greater focus of this conference. In early January, a conference took place in Berlin entitled "Investing in Peace – Spurring private Involvement in post-conflict Peacebuilding". Private investment is urgently needed in crisis regions, but we need to offer attractive incentives and provide adequate securities in order to attract it.

Nuclear power is a topic on which opinions vary widely within the European Union. The European Council's resolutions deliberately leave open the political channels via which climate protection should be implemented. As you are no doubt aware, we in Germany, in collaboration with the energy industry, have resolved to phase out the use of nuclear power, for a variety of reasons. In fact, we state that we are protecting the climate by phasing out nuclear power. This is the correct formula. Current considerations associated with "conflict prevention" include the following:

• the uncontrolled proliferation of radioactive material increases the global threat; the complete safety of technical processes can never be guaranteed, especially in view of the unresolved problem of radioactive waste disposal.
• If we ourselves view nuclear power as a "solution", how can we justifiably prevent fragile states from using it, in whose hands nuclear power could develop catastrophic destruction potential?
• How can we credibly call for an efficiency revolution while at the same time continuing to promote a highly inefficient form of energy?

IV Raw materials supply

Other raw materials deserve our attention just as much as energy resources. "If there is ever a third world war, it will be over energy and raw materials", said former US Defense and Energy Secretary, James Schlesinger. Resource wars will be a key issue in the future, asserted Henry Kissinger. And the Pentagon concluded: "The world is just as vulnerable when it comes to titanium, niobium, tin, beryllium, germanium or platinum as it is with regard to oil". Reserves of other substances such as antimony or indium are likewise limited.

In December 2005, in its "Thematic strategy on the sustainable use of natural resources", the EU Commission ascertained that policies to date have failed to reverse deep-seated, unsustainable resource use trends in Europe and worldwide. Instead, the response of some industrialised and developing countries has been to negotiate exclusive mining rights for raw materials and to invest in raw materials mines in order to secure priority access. Prompted by the dynamic demand for raw materials from countries such as China and India, world market prices for imported raw materials in the Euro region have risen by 81 percent between 2000 and 2005. The required political response lies in a twin-pronged strategy:

1. Our policies on raw materials must be governed by the same principles as energy. We need strategies which will enable us to utilise raw materials more efficiently, through a combination of conservation, recycling, and above all, efficiency gains. In the long term, economic success will only be enjoyed by those economies which adopt extensive measures to boost efficiency.

Germany has set itself a target to increase raw material efficiency by 20 % by the year 2020.

At European level, we will be calling for ambitious resource efficiency targets similar to those already outlined in our national sustainability strategy. Some of the initiatives already underway in Germany include the following:</ p>

We have adopted a "high-tech strategy", in which the development of technologies to boost energy and raw material efficiency is considered one of the "leading markets of the future".

• As part of our raw materials strategy, by the year 2009, we will be channelling almost half a billion Euros into new materials research.
• We want a "new deal for economic, environmental and employment policy" in which efficiency technologies play a key role.
• We recently established a "resource efficiency network", which aims to provide companies, engineers, researchers and interest groups with an information platform for improved cooperation and implementation.

The adoption of a joint approach by the European Union would be desirable, based on the EU resources strategy.

2. We need more "governance" on this topic, and the opportunities for achieving it are favourable, as our converging world becomes increasingly reliant on reciprocity. For this reason, we should step up our efforts to forge an "energy and raw materials alliance" between industrialised and developing countries. Alliances must be based on mutual support and cooperation:

• We need to offer more technologies to assist developing countries, e.g. with safeguarding access to energy and water, and with the development of renewable energies. The implementation of a European Environmental Technologies Action Plan (ETAP) under the auspices of the Lisbon Strategy represents an important approach in this respect.
• Reliable agreements need to be reached. Conflict prevention is also a key topic in the run-up to the G 8, under the heading of "responsible management of natural resources".

We also need attainable visions. In 1795, the German philosopher Immanuel Kant in his work "Perpetual Peace" reflected on the principal task of politics as being to safeguard peace. Countries must stop behaving like competing entities whose only interest is to augment their own power. Through the European Union, we in Europe have the opportunity to prove to the whole world that "perpetual peace" is possible and not Coopers jungle in a Hobbesian world. European initiatives aimed at safeguarding peace will have the added "bonus" of not being seen as serving the interests of individual countries. Let us capitalise on this bonus. Let us improve our many European strategies, programmes and initiatives in the interests of safeguarding peace.

I wish you an interesting conference.