No. 57/04
Berlin, 09.03.2004

Now the Pentagon warns against climate change

Study on the connection between climate change and security risks

A study on climate change scenarios and their impact on national security in the US, commissioned by the Pentagon and published recently, has triggered a lively debate worldwide. The study outlines apocalyptic scenarios for northern and central Europe caused by abrupt changes in our climate as early as in the next decade. Nevertheless, the fundamental concern of the study is justified in that its purpose is to show that climate change is not always a slow gradual process but may also lead to dramatic transformations that would overtax the adaptation capacity even of industrialised nations, let alone of developing countries.

The connection between climate change and security risks should be taken seriously - even if the process is only a gradual one. The Federal Environment Ministry drew attention to precisely this fact in a brochure entitled "Climate change and conflicts" published in 2002. As a result of global climate change, the number of so-called environmental refugees will increase worldwide. These are people whose living conditions have been transformed by soil erosion, desertification, water scarcity or rising sea levels in such a way that they are prevented from leading a dignified existence in their native regions. Furthermore, millions of people are fleeing weather-related disasters such as droughts, floods and devastating storms. According to UNEP estimates, their number already amounts to 20 to 24 million people a year.

These environmental refugees will look for new land elsewhere, in the megacities of the developing countries, in the remaining fertile (and already overpopulated) areas in their own countries or in neighbouring countries. Others will try various strategies to make their way to the rich industrialised countries. This creates an enormous potential for conflict. In certain regions conflicts about habitable land or natural resources such as freshwater might even turn violent.

It does not take any unrealistic horror scenarios to substantiate the necessity of ambitious climate protection policies, since even the sound knowledge established by the scientific community on the possible effects of climate change is sufficient cause for alarm. We need a preventive and ambitious climate protection policy, including in the United States. Therefore the fact that the Pentagon too has drawn attention to the security policy implications of climate change is to be welcomed.

The EU has set itself the objective of preventing a warming of the global climate by more than two degrees compared to preindustrial levels - particularly in order to prevent disastrous and irreversible changes such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet or changes in worldwide ocean circulation patterns which are responsible for our mild climate.

The study commissioned by the Pentagon, entitled "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security" can be downloaded from http://halfgeek.net/weblog/special/gwreport/Pentagon.html.